Thursday, May 31, 2012

Once again its all lies, damned lies and statistics.


There has been a lot of people who are concerned about a recent poll conducted by the Marquette University School of Law.  The poll shows fraudulently elected Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker with a 7 point lead over Democrat challenger Tom Barrett.  Most of you probably know that Marquette University is the school that Walker attended for awhile before dropping out without graduating after the school announced that he had cheated and broke laws while running for student office.

There is nothing to worry about folks, unless you are a part of the polling and research arm of Marquette University that is.  Polling is a very strict science with very strict guidelines that must be followed to allow for accuracy in reporting and as a open display of the integrity of the polling unit.  Industry and government pay out some very serious money to the relatively small number of accepted and trusted polling firms.

Marquette University's election poll showing the 7 point difference between the two candidates is a intentional and misleading piece of work.  I can back that up with two key arguments, the first is straight up and easy to understand even for a conservative without a calculator.

Courtesy of the United States Census Bureau
Breakdown of U.S. population by age group.

AGE:                             POP (percentage of population)

18 and under                  25%

18 - 24                          10%

25 - 44                          28%

45 - 64                          24%

65 and over                   13%

The above numbers are rounded off, up or down to the nearest whole number for ease of calculation.

Courtesy of the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board
Breakdown of registered WI voters by age group.

AGE                             POP

18 - 24                         9%

25 - 34                         16%

35 - 49                         26%

50 - 64                         28%

65 and over                  20%

The above numbers are rounded off, up or down to the nearest whole number for ease of calculation.

Now we see from those two charts that people age 65 and over comprise 13% of the population as well as 20% of the registered voters in the state.  The Marquette University poll used the 65 and over group as if they were 30% of the population.  That means that MU falsely stated that people age 65 and over represent a total of 30% of the population.  Statistically that is horrendous and inexcusable.

We can also see from the above chart that in Wisconsin, people age 25 - 49 represent a large part, 42% of all registered voters.  Yet in the MU poll they only accounted that age group as comprising 25% of all registered voters.  Once again completely unacceptable and scientifically the data must be tossed out.

Another factor and a very important one, is that MU conducted all of the polling over land line phones only, and only land line phones that have been in use and existence before January 1st of 1990.  This is interesting and disturbing because land line phones in use before the 1990's account for only about one third (33%) of the Wisconsin state population.

One more quick set of numbers for you here folks:

The city of Milwaukee is 12.7% of the Wisconsin population.

The greater Milwaukee area is 32.7%  of the Wisconsin population.

The greater Milwaukee area comprises such suburbs as Waukesha which although comprising a very small part of the state of Wisconsin's land mass, represent roughly 70% of wealthy republican voters.  This is also the home and hearth of the Wisconsin tea party.

Marquette University conducted over 90% of all of there polling in this republican dominated area, in this area they intentionally over-emphasized focus on the 65 and over age group.  In other words MU polled rich, white, retired republicans and said that they represented a scientific polling of nearly the ENTIRE population of the state of Wisconsin.  Do you see the problem here?  The poll is a total and intentional (will get to that part in a minute here) fraud designed to make the democratic candidate look like he is near hopelessly behind which time and again has been proven to affect voter turn out numbers for an election.

But take heart folks because even with the numbers fudged up that bad they only give Walker a 7 point lead.  In all reality a skewed poll like that would have to report at least a 15 point lead to Walker to make any sense at all.  And a 15 point lead is so gross and off the charts that they knew they could never report it and be believed at all.  By the closest basic accounting which involves refiguring the data, you end up with Barrett having about a 2.5 point lead.

Of course the wiggle room and translation of the figures is alterable.  Heck you get the right number cruncher and they could take my statistics as a 6' tall 200 lb middle age male, and after some calculations absolutely prove (on paper) that I am a 7 year old African American girl of Antartic descent.  I prefer to stick to the simple and easily traceable mathematics we all learned in school.

So why did MU conduct this poll, knowing that holes were going to be punched through it?  Well MU a very conservative and private school is in competition with the states public universities.  They have a vested interest in Walker because he has and further will, gut and remove funding to the states public university system.

But MU also makes some pretty good money conducting polls which they traditionally have done fairly well indeed.  So when all is said and done MU is tarnishing its own reputation and will lose money for years to come because they are about to be busted for cooking the books.  Why would they risk losing that money if they knew Walker might very likely be recalled?

The answer comes in the form of a $5,000,000 anonymous donation given to the school right before these skewed figures were released.  Does it all make sense now folks?  It certainly does to me!  Other folks (researchers and lawyers amongst others) are working on taking Marquette to task (and quite likely to court) over these matters, but that will not happen in time for this information to be released before next weeks recall election.  I don't have access to all the information in this matter, but I have enough to prepare this posting for my readers.

I am very interested in where this five million dollars came from and it will probably have to go to court before we can find out.  The ultra-conservative Bradley Foundation is a primary funder of Marquette University and does not hide that fact.  If the money came from them though, then why are they hiding it as a anonymous donation?  Curiouser and curiouser.

 Hopefully you will help spread the word about this to your family and friends, and that you will tell them to take heart.  For all these shenanigans to be going on the GOTea must be very worried indeed about the upcoming recall election.  And that is some very good news indeed for all of Wisconsin at this all important time in our history.  Solidarity forever sisters and brothers.

On Wisconsin!    FORWARD!!!!

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